Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army by Brian Nichiporuk, John Gordon

By Brian Nichiporuk, John Gordon

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Most of the modernization effort has been devoted to the creation of several Interim divisions. 32 Modernization Implications Major Competitor Overall impact on Army Mod Plan = Major (increase) Objective Interim Force Force Army XXI SOF WMD TMD Defense AVN Deep Strike CSS C4ISR Insights: • • • • • • Reappearance of major opponent Active Army is 10% larger than today Major increases in attack aviation, deep strike, and C4ISR Objective Force–type medium units stressed over Interim organizations TMD/WMD require increase compared to today’s plans Army XXI–type units used in areas conducive toprepositioning R ARROYO CENTER Major Competitor is a threatening future.

Increases in C4ISR capability seemed appropriate in all cases, although there would be important differences as to the type of C4I system required. , the Major Competitor case) might not be at all appropriate in the Transnational Web situation. TMD and counter-WMD capabilities vary somewhat. , Transnational Web). 46 Insights continued • SOF remains the same or warrants an increase in all cases. • Significant investment in Army aviation is appropriate in all futures, but in several futures the aviation mix would change in favor of lift as opposed to attack aircraft.

There would be no peer-level opponent in this future. We saw a need to modestly increase the Objective Force in this situation. This should result in a capability to rapidly defeat regional opponents. Army XXI units would be reduced by a modest amount. In overall terms, this means that by roughly 2020 one additional division would be converted to Objective Force configuration at the expense of older Army XXI structure. Most other categories appeared to require little if any change. , additional ATACMS) and C4ISR would be warranted in this situation, since increases in both those areas would contribute to achieving overmatch of 27 the regional opponents that would represent the most challenging case in this future.

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